This Month
- Opinion
- Smart Investor
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot
The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global peers.
- Christopher Joye
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
There’s ‘only one outcome’ that really matters, and it’s not Trump v Harris
Calmer markets mean investors are back to worrying about US politics and the Middle East conflict. But this leading strategist says both fears are overdone.
- Updated
- James Thomson
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
ASX investors have been caught out by a brutal bear panic
This isn’t just investors fretting about bad news. It’s investors fretting about bad news and panicking about the fact they are simply not positioned for it.
- James Thomson
US recession rumblings to roil ASX
The Australian sharemarket is set for its worst two-day sell-off in two years after jobs data in the US confirmed traders’ biggest fears of a worsening economy.
- Joshua Peach
- Opinion
- Chanticleer
Why recession panic is gripping the markets
Global markets are being lashed by a perfect storm of recession fears, volatility and AI scepticism. But there’s a key reason it threatens to turn into panic.
- Updated
- James Thomson
May
The number that sums up Biden’s biggest economic problem
While price rises have cooled from more than 9 per cent to 3.4 per cent, household budgets have not recovered since Biden took office.
- Updated
- Matthew Cranston
April
Trump’s Fed chairman option opposes rate cuts this year
Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner to become Federal Reserve chairman if Donald Trump is elected. He says inflation remains sticky and isn’t being measured properly.
- Matthew Cranston
- Analysis
- Immigration
Immigration politically toxic, but it’s helping drive US growth
Immigration has been good for the US economy, just as an out-of-control border becomes the No.1 issue for voters in some states and No.2 in swing states.
- Matthew Cranston
February
- Analysis
- Immigration
Immigration could save the US from recession. But there’s a catch
The immigration crisis is fuelling economic growth, according to experts. Others say it can burden cities with huge costs and drive down productivity and wages
- Matthew Cranston
Amazon economists say they can spot a recession in real time
Two economists at the tech giant say they have a model that allows them to identify a recession in the US and Europe.
- Alex Tanzi
January
- Analysis
- GDP
How much longer can the US avoid recession?
Job cuts and softer spending may be the warning signs that it’s too early to say the world’s biggest economy will continue to expand this year.
- Updated
- Matthew Cranston
- Opinion
- US election
Don’t be too quick to celebrate latest US economic data
There might not be a crash landing for the US economy, but it’s too early to say it is safely back on the tarmac. Much depends on jobs and spending this year.
- Matthew Cranston
December 2023
- Opinion
- Opinion
How were so many economists so wrong about a US recession?
There is a reason that so many economists have been predicting a recession in the US — and it is not because they are out of touch.
- Tyler Cowen
- Analysis
- Global economy
Anyone seen that US recession?
The US economy avoided a recession this year but, if history is any guide, it’s still a possibility.
- Matthew Cranston
- Analysis
- Interest rates
Strong jobs market holds back Fed rate cuts
Employment growth is still key to predicting the Federal Reserve’s path to interest rate cuts, as Jerome Powell faces intense pressure to reveal his plan.
- Matthew Cranston
October 2023
- Analysis
- Industrial relations
Why a 36pc pay rise at US car makers won’t inflame inflation
The wage jump over four years demanded by US car workers would lift inflation only slightly, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.
- Matthew Cranston
September 2023
- Opinion
- Bonds
Bank stocks 17pc overvalued based on bonds
New research that extends the equity risk premium framework to bank stocks implies they face downside risks.
- Christopher Joye
- Analysis
- Residential property
How first home buyers are keeping the US market alive
Few Americans are selling their homes as about 60 per cent of mortgages are locked in to low rates, but first home buyers are still entering the market.
- Matthew Cranston
August 2023
Why Yellow Corp’s collapse makes a good MBA case study
The threat of strike action was the last straw for a company that was slow to consolidate a series of acquisitions as the debts mounted.
- Matthew Cranston
- Analysis
- US politics
Why Biden isn’t getting a boost from a strong economy
The US president has a disapproval rating as high as Trump’s was at the same stage in his presidency.
- Matthew Cranston
